9 November 2022: Expert Group on Statistics - E

Questions from core participants:

On the prevalence of infections between different parts of the UK; they said they don’t really know the numbers broken up like that but it would need to include age, gender, calendar date, etc.

On the modelling exercise and a clarification on the methodology for calculating the units transfused figure; they said broadly speaking, yes to what was reflected back to them. There was almost certainly some wastage which is not reported.

On the numbers for patients infected compared to the numbers of patients treated using implicated batches; they said no, it was a different assumption in the modelling.

The Chair asked to check if he was on sound ground when he includes the overall infected numbers for bleeding disorder patients and transfusion patients in his report, making reference to certain pages in the Expert Group report as sources. The panel helpfully explained the relevant factors, including how it might be reasonable to get to a quotable number or a range. There were potential sources not included in the referenced pages. The panel were very reluctant to state a number, which sounded counter-intuitive for statistics experts. Their fears were around the amount of judgement involved. The Chair encouraged some speculation towards a broad range of “no lower than, and no higher than”. Some of the affecting factors were reviewed. The HIV numbers would be in a wide range considering the relatively smaller numbers involved. The HCV range would be very wide, but the panel engaged in the discussion and even allowed for the number of over 120 HIV deaths and something around 3,000 HCV deaths for bleeding disorder patients, but these numbers were very heavily laced with warning notices. The panel agreed to get together and try to come up with numbers they would feel more comfortable with and couched in terms which would be more statistically acceptable. Counsel joined in the numbers game with observations and questions to guide further checking. The Chair recognised that he had “set the hare running”, but it was “not a false hare”. It was recognised how, out of respect to infected and affected people, this had to be done respectfully.

The witnesses gave thanks to the Inquiry team for all their support and patience, and the audience for enduring the evidence session. They also thanked colleagues for the considerable work done in pulling the figures and report together.

The Chair echoed the thanks to those who had put in a lot of work, especially when Covid was demanding so much of their attention. He also was grateful to the way the panel and their colleagues had recognised the human experiences at the back of all the numbers.

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